The SERP in 2026: Trying to Make Sense of the Nonsensical

An Olly Olly Opinion Piece

If you’ve searched for a local service recently, plumber, electrician, roofer, you’ve probably noticed something different. The business that wins and shows up first doesn’t look like the others.

It is designed for action, it has buttons. Fewer steps to Call, Directions, Website. One tap and you’re connected.

The businesses below it are just listings. You have to scroll. Click into the profile. Find the phone number yourself.

This isn’t an accident. This is the new reality, and small businesses deserve an honest explanation of what is happening..

And we think it’s time to talk honestly about why.

The Pattern We’re Seeing

Claudia Tomina, CEO of Reputation Arm and a Google Business Profile expert, posted something recently that caught our attention. She observed what she called “a troubling UX pattern reminiscent of the old Yelp model,” sponsored listings designed for instant conversion while organic listings get visually demoted.

She’s right. But we think the story goes deeper.

Here’s what’s actually happening.

Google has created two tiers of visibility in local search. Sponsored listings get the conversion tools, Call button, Directions button, Website button. Organic listings increasingly become text-only cards that require extra effort to act on.

The UX difference is intentional. Sponsored listings are designed for instant conversion. Organic listings are designed to be scrolled past.

Why Is Google Doing This?

Let’s follow the money and the data.

The Revenue Picture

Google’s advertising revenue has grown from 51 billion dollars in 2013 to 264.5 billion in 2024, a 418 percent increase in just over a decade. In 2024 alone, Google Search Ads generated 198 billion dollars, up from 175 billion the year before.

This isn’t a company looking for new revenue streams. This is a company optimizing an already dominant one. So when SERP changes, it’s rarely random.

The User Behavior Data: Google cares about what users do, not what you publish

(New to SEO? SERP is what marketing folks call the Search Engine Results Page. It is just the page you see after you Google something.)

Here’s where it gets interesting. Thanks to the DOJ antitrust trial, we now have unprecedented insight into how Google actually thinks about search.

Documents revealed that Google uses what they call the “3 Pillars of Ranking”: Body, Anchors, and User Interactions.

In plain English:

• Body = the actual content on your website

• Anchors = the links pointing to your site from other websites (this used to be the holy grail of SEO)

• User Interactions = what people actually do after they search. Clicks, how long they look at a result, swipes on carousels, whether they immediately search again (a sign the first result didn’t help)

That third one is the big reveal. Google is not just looking at your website anymore. They are watching what millions of users do after they see your listing.

A system called Navboost, described in trial testimony as one of Google’s strongest ranking signals, memorizes user click data to inform rankings. Google testified they trained it on 18 months of user behavior data. At Google’s scale, that is billions of interactions.

Translation: Google knows exactly how users behave. They know what makes people click. They know what makes people call. And they are using that knowledge to design SERPs that drive the behavior they want, not necessarily the behavior that is best for your business.

What Behavior Do They Want?

The evidence suggests Google wants users to either:

1. Click on ads (revenue)
   
2. Stay on Google (engagement and data collection)

Consider this zero click searches now account for nearly 60 percent of all Google searches. That is up from 26 percent in 2022. On mobile, it is over 75 percent.

Google is increasingly answering queries directly on the SERP through featured snippets, knowledge panels, AI Overviews, and Local Packs so users never have to leave.

But here is the thing. When a user does need to take action, like calling a plumber, Google has optimized the experience to favor the paid path.

The SERP Evolution: A Timeline

2012: Google Venice update revolutionizes local search.

2014: Google Pigeon update ties local rankings closer to traditional SEO.

2015: The Map Pack shrinks from 7 listings to 3. RankBrain launches.

2016: Right-side ads removed. Four ads appear at the top.

2017–2018: Mobile-first indexing rolls out.

2023: Antitrust documents confirm user interaction data drives rankings.

2024: AI Overviews launch, taking up massive screen real estate.

2025: Organic CTR drops 61 percent on AI Overview queries. Zero-click searches hit 60 percent.

What does this actually mean?

Google watches what people do after they search. Did they click. Did they scroll. Did they bounce back. Did they stay. Did they call.

They use billions of interactions to decide what to show next. And crucially, they use it to design the SERP itself.

They know people click what’s easiest to click. That’s why sponsored listings have buttons. This isn’t a theory. It’s behavioral engineering.

Why Now?

If this has been happening for years, why does 2024 to 2025 feel like an inflection point?

Our theory: AI gave Google the perfect cover.

AI Overviews gave them an excuse to redesign everything. The narrative became “AI is changing search,” not “Google is pushing ads harder.”

Users blame AI for why search feels different, not Google’s business model.

Is this conspiratorial? Maybe.

The less cynical version is that Google is scared of ChatGPT and Perplexity. They’re trying to stay relevant. The ad benefits are a side effect.

But the first organic result now lives far below the fold. Someone approved that design.

Motivation aside, the outcome is the same. Organic visibility is getting crushed.

Two Things Nobody Is Talking About

1. Interaction Data Is the New Backlink

Sponsored listings make it easier to call. More calls mean more interaction data.
Navboost sees those interactions and assumes the business is better.
So the sponsored listing stays on top. Organic listings fall further down.
Paid placement leads to more data. More data leads to algorithmic reward. It’s a feedback loop.
The business paying for ads isn’t better. They just bought access to the button.

2. The Ghosting of the Website Link

Website buttons are increasingly buried or hidden.
Google is decoupling businesses from their websites.
You call from Google. You message from Google. You book from Google.
Your website becomes a brochure nobody reads.
If Google trains users to never visit business websites, your entire customer relationship runs through their platform on their terms.

The Assumptions Behind This Strategy

Users will follow the path of least resistance.

Advertisers will pay the platform tax.

Organic results still matter enough to maintain trust.

Most business owners won’t connect the dots.

They’ll blame seasonality, reviews, their website, or try Facebook ads.

They won’t realize Google moved the Call button months ago.

We don’t know if this is intentional or just profit optimization. The outcome is the same either way.

What This Means for Small Businesses

SEO Is Table Stakes

SEO gets you invited to the party. It doesn’t guarantee anyone talks to you.

Your website is maybe 10 percent of your visibility. Your GBP, reviews, photos, and responses matter more.

Paid Strategy Is Becoming Mandatory

Local Services Ads work. The Guaranteed Verification badge builds trust. That sponsored placement is where the action is.

Google Ads get 65 percent of clicks for buying keywords.

Diversification Is Essential

If all your leads come from Google, you’re one update away from a bad quarter.

Build email lists. Ask for referrals. Invest in brand searches.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Google will keep making organic results less valuable.

Their revenue depends on it.

SEO isn’t dead. It’s just not enough.

The businesses that win treat visibility as a system, not a listing.

The rest will wonder why their phone stopped ringing despite 200 five-star reviews.

Our Take

We run SEO for local service businesses. We could pretend this isn’t happening.

We won’t.

The incentives are clear, the interface is changing. The free path is getting more friction. The trend is obvious.

Google spent a decade building this system.

Adaptation is the difference between survival and decline.

The platform tax is here.

The only question is whether you pay it on your terms or theirs.